It is looking more and more like we could see a significant winter storm next week, but a lot could still change with our computer models over the weekend.
Right now GFS is showing a wintry mix for our area late Tuesday into Wednesday. It would mean periods of snow, freezing rain and sleet. Amounts stay light to moderate on GFS, which would mean that we could see some light ice accumulations and perhaps an inch or 2 of show in the Upstate. The European model is heavier. That's the picture that I have attached to the post. You can see the reds, indicating heavy precip, falling midday on Wednesday. Surface temps will be very close to freezing, and the upper levels will be warmer. This would lead to a borderline ice event for us. A degree or 2 really make all the difference.
The Canadian model is more in line with GFS when it comes to amounts, keeping it a light to moderate event and not showing the heavy precip.
But enough about the models... After looking at everything today here's what I'm thinking (and I expect this to evolve quite a bit over the next few days)
Saturday: Showers for the Upstate, especially south of I85, and snow in the mountains early.
Sunday: Mostly dry, some snow near the TN border in the mountains.
Monday: Slight chance of showers
Tuesday: Wintry mix, sleet and snow mixed with rain. Light amounts.
Tues. night and Wednesday: Periods of freezing rain, ending as all cold rain late day.
By no means am I calling for a major ice storm or a big snow. This looks like a true "mixed bag". However, there's a chance this could evolve into a heavy freezing rain event, which would be a major threat to our area. We all need to stay weather-alert through the weekend as the forecast becomes clearer. I'll be updating over the weekend on Facebook and Twitter, and Ted will be blogging and have forecasts at 10 each night.