CLEVELAND, OH (WOIO) - After a drier and warmer than typical summer in 2017, summer 2018 looks to be slightly different for northern Ohio and much of the lower Great Lakes region.
All types of weather patterns go into a seasonal climate prediction. One of the key contributors is the presence and strength of an El Niño or La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. We are currently dealing with a weakening La Niña, or cooler than normal ocean waters.
In fact it's weakening to the point that it's nearly neutral, so we don't put much emphasis on it when predicting climate.
As we know, both March and April were abnormally cooler months for northern Ohio, and April 2018 was one of coolest Aprils across the continental United States in years.
Another way to predict what might happen is to look at what has happened. So, we look at other years with those cooler spring anomalies and see what the summer held.
In some of those cooler years, we saw warmer summers. In fact, that happened in 2017, when June, July and August were warmer and drier than normal following the cool spring.
We also look at things like soil moisture, and how it may affect summer rains. We currently have wetter than normal soil, and there is evidence that could lead to a wetter summer.
So, we put all that together, add in a few things, and come up with our summer 2018 outlook. We expect warmer temperatures, especially east.
We expect 10-15 90° days, nearly double our normal.
And, we look to have an active, wetter pattern with frequent rain and storms, and even a spike in severe weather, especially in June.
Have a great summer!