Here’s why shoppers may be buying less candy for Halloween this year

(AP) - Halloween candy sales are off to a slow start this year as U.S. consumers grapple with high living costs and eye-popping chocolate prices.

Halloween candy sales fell 6.7% in the month ending Oct. 17 compared to the same period last year, according to NielsenIQ, a market research firm. Nielsen also noted an 11.7% decline in candy sales in mid-September, erasing the preseason gains that Halloween candy enjoyed the previous two years.

Chris Costagli, a vice president and food thought leader at NielsenIQ, said high gas prices have worsened Americans’ concerns about affordability, and that’s dampening demand for Halloween treats. As of Friday, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.29, up nearly 40% from the prior year.

“I think what you’re seeing now is a consumer that’s spending so much additional money on fuel and housing and clothing and food,” Costagli said. “Some of the decisions they’re making about Halloween candy, it’s not necessarily because, ‘I notice it’s more expensive than last year,’ it’s, ‘I can’t afford it this year because I’ve paid so much more for so many other things. I just don’t have the financial means to buy it this year.’”

Small bags of candy were the only sizes seeing sales growth through mid-October, Costagli noted. Large and extra-large bags were seeing the biggest declines.

U.S. candy prices have been climbing faster than the rate of inflation for several years. As of September, candy and gum prices were up 44% over a five-year period, according to government data. Prices for all food eaten at home rose 22.5% in the same period.

This week, discount grocer Aldi was advertising a 135-piece variety pack of Mars Inc. chocolate bars – including Milky Way, Trix and Snickers – for $19.87. That’s almost the same price consumers paid for a 250-piece variety pack five years ago.

Cocoa prices are the main culprit. Global cocoa prices reached a record high of $10,710 per metric ton in January 2025 because of poor weather in West Africa – which supplies 70% of the world’s chocolate -- and speculative trading in the cocoa futures market, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Cocoa prices had been falling steadily since then, and hit $3,241 per metric ton in March. But they began climbing again in the spring as the Iran war disrupted Africa’s fertilizer supplies. The El Niño weather pattern is also expected to hurt production, with hot, dry conditions expected through February.

But Costagli noted that even in cases where prices are lower than last year, consumer demand is muted. The average price of non-chocolate Halloween candies, like gummies and lollipops, was $6.08 per pound in the nine weeks ending Oct. 17, which was about 3% lower than last year, according to Nielsen data. But that didn’t lead to a bump in sales.

Sally Lyons Wyatt, a global executive vice president and food industry adviser for the market research company Circana, said one way U.S. consumers have been handling higher grocery prices is by making smaller and more frequent trips to the supermarket and buying products right before they intend to use them. That makes her wonder if shoppers are waiting until closer to Halloween to buy candy this year.

“People are very intentional and thoughtful about what they want to consume, not just for holidays, but in general,” she said. “I do believe we will still see softness overall with candy, but I don’t think Halloween is doomed.”

The National Confectioners Association, a trade group that represents candy makers like Mars, Smarties Candy Co. and Ferrara Candy Co., said it remains optimistic about Halloween sales.

“We are just now entering the peak period for Halloween and consumer enthusiasm remains incredibly strong,” the group said Friday in a statement.